"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dawson McDougal wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dawson McDougal wrote:
Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all
that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope
flow
at the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation
7,000+ ft.
Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of
snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern
plains
if it can gather enough moisture.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-
Over here we generally have just the one form of snow. On the west
coast where the strong winds come in the temperature rises. This
invariably happens with every Low. So if this system causes snow it
falls wet and messy.
British and Norwegian weather very much depends on the Azores High and
its counterpart the Icelandic Low.
This is turning into a very classic, major and predictable (if you can
believe that)
winter storm for the northern plains.
Anywhere from 10 to 32 inches of snow can be expected in the warning
area.
The Laramie Mountains are picking up close to 3 feet of snow (due to
upflow
conditions) while on the plains, anywhere from 10 to 24 inches of snow
will fall.
Outside the warning area, people can expect 2 to 6 inches. This is one of
the
biggest storms I've seen in a while.) It's bigger than the Northeast
Storm
and doesn't have the direct bennefit of the ocean to work with.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17185
The states you mention though are typically very dry during the summer
months, southern California can expect little or no rain during the late
summer, take a look at the averages. Nevada is obviously dry because it
is
mostly desert, however, the rest of the states you mention do experience
thunderstorm activity during the summer.
I obviously have no experience of continental weather; much less than
that for the N American continent. I did once try, on another forum
somewhere, to explain the above phenomenon in terms of the so called
Southern Oscillation.
I worked out that the El Nino and La Nina effects are no mre than
singularities that appear sometimes due to the runs of the lunar phases
as I had expected it to. Now and again a run of phases will produce
exceptional hurricanes in the North Atlantic as it did last year the N
Atlantic Oscilation.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17180
I don't know nearly enough about astrometry to say what part of the
cycles they come from. I doubt it is that difficult to go to the next
stage of empirically forecasting them the way they forecast tides. Once
they give it a fair go.
I don't know if I will live long enough to see that though. Even
experts in all the oceanographic earth sciences are convinced that the
moon directly raises tides -so there is no hope for much from that
quarter in anybody's lifetime.
Not that the really important things in life have ever required
"theoretical" solutions.
This is a cop-out though: "Nevada is obviously dry because it is mostly
desert."
And it highlights a different way of looking at things that we have.
You talked about "a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow at
the surface".
Until recently looking at the information on the BBC weather sceen you
could see the progression of Lows and Highs from the Mid Atlantic to
Norway and France. And you would know instantly what that would mean.
The presenter only had to highlight where they thought it would affect
the most.
(Now they just stand in front of a bag of porridge waving at it. But
that's just one of the local problems with having fools in authority. I
gather things are much worse over there.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweat...st_media.shtml
If you had said a Low reaching from somewhere west or east of the
mountains of so and so I would have been better able to follow you. Not
that you were wrong, just that it's how a body gets used to
understanding something.
Well, I agree with you in the sense that my explanation of Nevada weather
during the summer was poor at best, I do apologize for that. Southern
California and the rest of the desert southwest do not experience rain at
all during the summer, except for a few exceptions. It's my understanding
the parts of Arizona do have some rain during the latter summer months. The
vast majority of precipitation during the summer months occurs in the
eastern half of the United States, parts of Florida average close to 90
inches of precip per year. Many of the areas you speak of are lucky to get
12 inches of precipitation per year, unless you are talking about the
mountains, where orographic lifting forces higher amounts of precip to fall
on the western side of a mountain.
As far as the storm is concerned, it's not all that complicated. It is
simply moving from west to east across the northern plain states, bringing
with it, a lot of moisture and dragging a lot of cold air in behind it. The
coldest air of the season will follow this storm, some areas will stay below
0 F for several days with windchill readings from -25 to -50. The higher
elevations typically see more snow. Here is a fairly good explanation from
the NWS out of central Nebraska, put some ear plugs in:
UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A LONG PERIOD OF SNOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS WHERE 8 TO
16 INCHES ARE LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ALONG A 100 MILE
AREA STRETCHING EAST AND WEST FROM HAY SPRING AND ELLSWORTH TO
MERRITT RESERVOIR...BROWNLEE...ELSMERE...WOOD LAKE AND POINTS TO
THE EAST. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
From Wyoming:
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
THROUGH 3 PM HAS FALLEN IN A BAND FROM RAWLINS WYOMING EAST TO
AROUND SCOTTSBLUFF NEBRASKA...WITH ABOUT 8 TO 18 INCHES. EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES SO FAR...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALLEST AMOUNTS WERE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO WESTER WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AVERAGE ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES
TONIGHT...BRINGING STORM TOTALS UP INTO THE 8 TO 20 INCH RANGE.
SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF WHEATLAND WYOMING WILL SEE
STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET.
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BLOW THIS EVENING...CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND COLD WILL MAKE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DANGEROUS...WITH TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOWY ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.
From Minnesota (not as much snow but near blizzard conditions combined with
sub zero temperatures will make for dangerous conditions:
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1200 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. CHECK THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JAMES...THROUGH RED WING...TO
BLOOMER WISCONSIN...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB
ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND COULD
DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE MINUS 25 TO MINUS 35 DEGREE RANGE.
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