On 15 May 2004 03:52:25 -0400, Joseph Bartlo
wrote:


For the case I was mentioning, the specific location was not an issue. For
that, they clearly overestimated the potential for rain - no different than
my 70 % for Thursday.

The thing I am criticizing is forecasting HOURLY probabilities which are as
great or sometimes greater than DAILY ones. That is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE.

snip

The NWS gets around this in their tabular forecasts by placing a
qualitative description in the precip block. Their tabular forecasts
are experimental and aren't used in all regions. BWI is using it,
however:

http://tinyurl.com/yqsu8

Note that they differentiate between rain and thunder.


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