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Old May 20th 04, 01:23 PM posted to ne.weather.moderated
Charles M. Kozierok Charles M. Kozierok is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Feb 2004
Posts: 216
Default Localized hurricane predictions stir debate

HI Larry,

In article ,
WXAMERICA wrote:
} While an academic person might understand the meaning of percentage chances of
} a hurricane strike, "Joe Public" does not. I have no objection to
} "climatological chances" being posted, but the "seasonal predictions" have
} dubious if not negative value.

This is a good point, though a different one, I think, than that of the
original article. In both cases the concern is over misinterpretation of
the numbers. I think you are right that the seasonal predictions are
both less accurate and more likely to be misused, if for no other reason
than they get more attention.

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
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