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Old December 24th 03, 08:59 AM posted to sci.geo.earthquakes,sci.geo.meteorology
Michael McNeil Michael McNeil is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 2,359
Default Interesting Times.

"Bob Officer" wrote in message


Apophenia. and if you can't see that. some sort of weekly occurrence
triggers all events.

Too many other event fall outside you non-speific windows.
and the windows are large enough that any event could happen.

IIRC there are about 160-170 6.5 events per year. One could pick any 3 day
windows and have a decent chance of predicted an 6.5 event someplace in
world. Take a 6 day window and it will almost a sure thing.

IF I was to predict a 6.5 event within 6 months of a lunar eclipse, I would
be almost 100% chances of being correct.



Apogee occurs every 27 or so days with an unexplained bias toward the
syzygies. But if you mean the term as a reference to my lunacy and that
I am advocating a return to the beliefs of the past...

I am looking at the weatherlore of the past and I am looking at cross
references to physics and such references in the bible. If I was
familiar with any of the other so called sacred texts I might attempt to
search them for any possible unnoticed or overlooked insights.

Perigee occurs every 27 days or so too; giving an occurrence of one or
the other of every 13/14 days. To be honest, although I am preparing a
late Victorian book for publication online that purports to show the
method used by one "thaumaturge" (who had some local fame in his day)
that does indicate one of the variables he used was the time of the
apside compared to the time of syzygy, my methods have not been based on
what the author states.

My method so far is merely the comparison of the times of the phases.
And from the said times I have not yet been able to afford a prophecy
that equates the run concerned in this thread (which is not due to end
until the 30th of December) with either weather (for the UK) or
earthquakes (anywhere else on the planet) with anything like the
certainty I would like.

In short, as stated elsewhere in this thread, I do not have enough
familiarity with the effects of the number of minutes before and after
the hours of these phases:

30 NOV. 17:16. 8 DEC. 20:37. 16 DEC. 17:42. 23 DEC. 09:43.

They do produce, ridges cols and troughs. And the more widely accepted
methods of forecasting weather is capable of picking up -in plenty of
time- the likely positions of fronts with 3 or 4 days fairly accurate
prescience.

Fortunately it is possible to forecast from these chaotic preparations
that a quake is due.

One day someone using such a method will be able to say where, when and
what strength such a quake will be.

I imagine that the size shape and rate of travel of the front as well as
the angle at which it lies on the weathwer charts, will be the method or
one of the methods used.

As far as "windows" are concerned:

As it happens the present phase is producing similar weather here to
that which the last phase produced, though (of course) there were some
differences (it is a little less cold since yesterday evening.) This
present spell will be consecutive to the previous one as well as to
the next one on the 30th. So my "Window" is 3 weeks long and more.

However I am not looking for quakes in the range of between 4 and 7 M.

I am hoping to define that quakes of 7-up will occur when this sort of
consecutive run takes place. In the meantime the likely arrival of
quakes in the region of 4-up can be forecast from "occluded fronts" that
are due to the arrival at the north west coast of the Atlantic from the
north east coast of said ocean.

If you find that this essay is a little too much for you to grasp all at
once, here is a nice little mantra to rehearse for the next few days:

Four emms good, 7 emms baaaaaaad.
Four emms good, 7 emms baaaaaad.
Four emms good, 7 emms baaaaad.
Four emms good, 7 emms baaaad.
Four emms good, 7 emms baaad.
Four emms good, 7 emms baad.
Four emms good, 7 emms bad.



(Bloody mutton heads!)


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