A fairly serious problem with a model based on past weather is that,
if we assume climate is changing, then the basis of the model is
largely irrelevant. Mind you, that mightn't matter so much in terms
of "averages" in the short term future, but when it comes to
predicting extremes (e.g. "100-year events" etc.) all bets are off.


Cheers, Phred.

Phred, I'm not sure that is true. example: If a climate change is driven by
increased sea surface temperature, and SST is related to air temperature,
then the basic physics and physical relationships could remain unchanged.
If a pool of 35 C water were to occur off Oz, todays models should be valid
for those conditions/