WV backing to about PCOLA as of 8:30 AM THURSDAY


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Don
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"Mike1" wrote in message
...
wrote:

In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus....


Santa, eh? Hardly....

Blofeld's hypnotic voice, in "On Her Majesty's 'Secret Service'"
"Now, take out your present. Such a prettily-wrapped present.
Now is the time to open it....."
/Blofeld

- - -

After yesterday's shearing environment resulted in a contraction of
windfield and eyewall tightening, Frances is now moving almost due west
under a nearly perfect outflow environment, and picked up speed as it is
being scooted along by a deep-layer surge (visible on WV) from the east.
The hurricane's windfield will begin to expand, and the current tiny
eyewall ring will be will be replaced by a much larger Isabel/Mitch eye.
The hurricane will then be able to process greater volumes of air, and
should quickly intensity to a very strong cat-4 or cat-5 sometime
tomorrow and maintain that higher intensity until it either strikes land
or recurvature begins (since recurvature is usually accompanied by
southwesterly shear).

The NHC is presently concerned that previously model-hinted recurvature
(with weakening) into the Carolines (your basic, seen-it-before, "Floyd
gets sheared, pukes out, and spares everyone" track) may not happen at
all.....

In the past, I have noticed that large and energetic* hurricanes with
very expansive exhaust canopies can strengthen and "warp" the high
pressure regions around them to accomadate their existence; the stronger
high, in turn, has additional "muscle" to bulldoze pesky jet-streams at
far peripheries. Sometimes seen with west-Pac storms and rarely in the
Atlantic, on WV satellite this assumes the appearance of a westward-
moving hurricane preceded by a forward "bow-shock" (of high cirrus) and
trailing an exhaust "rat-tail" to the east (as if it were a curling
wave) with a standing-wave "Omega Block" north of it retrograding in
tandem. Frances is not yet so large or energetic a storm, although it
is, presently, bigger than Georges was in this vacinity (which accounts
for it weathering the similar shearing episode better despite being
weaker); she does, however, presently lack a large constellation of
feeder-bands, so she's obviously not processing as much atmosphere as,
say, Gilbert or Georges. Should Frances become so large, don't be
surprised to see a very stubborn track break recurve models one after
the other, much as both Gilbert and Georges both did.

Watch the WV, and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf.


(*I use "energetic" as a euphemism for "highly convective", not "with
high wind speeds". A broad cat-3 with a gigantic exhaust canopy is more
capable of modifying the surrounding environment than an intense but
tiny hurricane like Charley. Georges, for example, remained highly
energetic even the its surface-level windfield was shredded by the
Greater Antilles.)


"Bublee-bublee....that's all, Folks!"

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