Mr. Poopy Pants wrote:
"Mike1" wrote in message
...

Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:


Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.


That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

I don't know how bold it is. It is consistent with
d(prog)/dt, which is sometimes a pretty good forecast
tool. And it's consistent with Mike's climatology

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it. I
certainly wouldn't be stunned, though, if Frances
hit, say, the Big Easy. The question is -- would it be
like Andrew (a mere shadow of its former self) or
Betsy (still just as strong).

Sure is a pretty storm from space.

Scott