(Kent Paul Dolan) wrote:

These images change every six hours, so look fast,
but I think Orlando, Florida is under a curse:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...s/al092004.gif


Sea temps: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Five possible track scenerios within current probability cone:

1. Right outlayer: Storm hits glances off eastern Jamaica (weakening
somewhat), then crosses central Cuba (weakening more), crosses the
shortest portion of the Strait to hit the Florida tip going due north.
Among within-current-probability-cone, this is the best case, as it
brings the storm into the unpopulated Everglades section of Florida as
at best a cat-3 (with the eye then exiting along the "space coast" of
eastern Florida).

2. Charlie repeat: Expect a strong cat-4 at landfall as the storm
re-fuels up over warm water prior to landfall. A powerful storm, but
actually a "preferable scenerio" from an insurance industry stand-point,
since it'll be impacking many "already total loss" areas.

3. Middle of the cone: Central to east Panhandle hit -- Good news and
bad news: Prior to landfall, the storm will cross cooler water churned
by Frances. Unfortunately even a cat-3 storm hear will drive a massive
storm surge in; and Ivan's very large TS-force wind fetch rather than
maximum eyewall winds will generate enormous waves. And, if the storm is
accelerating north, it may spend no more than a few hours over this
cooler water.

4. Mobile hit AKA ("Camille track"): This is a worst-case scenerio, as
the storm will track NNW and remain east of France's cold "patch".
Unless badly sheared, could be a cat-5 at landfall.

5. Left outlayer: Storm proceeds into the central Gulf to a point south
of Louisianna, where it really cranks over that warm eddy. Best case (if
you can hope for one with a landfalling cat-5) is it charges ashore in
the lightly-populated mangro delta swamps and bleeds off strength. Worst
cases are a stall just south of the Delta for several days (which means
sustained easterly fetch floods New Orleans), followed by a left-angle
job into Houston as a high builds north.

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