"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
,Where did that rain come from on the radar in the SE ?
I think this is upper air driven.In WV a weakish vortex has spun up on the
PV streamer moving SE
across the country.
The AVN T+18 VT 06Z today has the core of the vortex displaced somewhat
NE,if MetO had similar error
this wld account for the poor forecast

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.c...ity&hour=018hr

Rather sharp,mod heavy shower in SE London ~17Z from v leaden sky
,otherwise rather nice with TCU
around.No rain so far this morning,


There was indeed an upper trough expected to drive east on Monday leading to
destabilisation and a scattering of showers. Yesterday's mesoscale runs
continued this theme and were also indicating a more organised dynamically
generated feature in the far SE, although admittedly not of the intensity of
this morning's radar returns.

Jon.