================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============
Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.
Now for next week.
High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern parts
with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England will
remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost not too
much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows.
Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from the west
during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers in
the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h 53 mins
in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range 10-13
deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a little
humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the race.
Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But
turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and north
with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers by
afternoon, again some heavy.
Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers giving a
pleasant April day for many.
The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come across
western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE and
perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather and
turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and windy at
times from a SW quarter.
I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it.
As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm
This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor.
Cheers,
Will.
--
" The best things in life are not things "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------