On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 15:36:32 -0500, "Vendicar Decarian"
wrote:


"owl" wrote in message
.. .
No it's not. Not even close. They're discovering new fields at the
same pace they always have. New technology is opening up access to
more fields. Other technologies are unlocking tar sands.

The rate of oil discovery is way, way down.

Production has peaked.

Yes, the rate of discovery is down. So what?

No, production has not peaked. Even guys predicting a coming crisis
fess up to production increasing this decade:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/196

ODAC analysed a total of 68 ‘mega projects’ with publicly announced
start-up dates from 2004 through 2010. In total, these projects would
add around 12.5 million barrels a day to world oil supplies by the
turn of the decade.

+12.5mbd ... anything unclear about that?

This new production would almost certainly not be sufficient to offset
diminishing supplies from existing sources and still meet growing
global demand, ODAC Board member Chris Skrebowski said.

More than half of the estimated new supply would simply replace
production declines elsewhere due to natural depletion, the study
found.

6.25mbd increase ... anything unclear about that?

A modest one percent annual rise in demand over the six-year period
would then leave little or no surplus capacity to cushion against
unforeseen disruptions in supply.

"Disruptions in supply." That's the big issue.


Summary - stop replying with lame 'no it isn't' responses. Got a
counter-argument, provide some stuff - if it's there, I'd like to see
it and learn from it.