"Will" wrote in message
...
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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting
these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble
data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the
time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that
hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection
of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and
so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't
too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been
moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.

I for one was quite happy with the weather as it happened in Edinburgh for
my easter break, so don't beat yourself for it going awry.

Rob