(Note: Apologies for the lack of these summaries over the past week or so, a
JCB brought down the street's phone cabling and it was only repaired
yesterday.)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0601z, 18/04/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Low pressure is located to the NW of the UK, with WSW'lies for all. The
winds become SW'lies at T+144 as high pressure builds over France, followed
by southerlies and SSW'lies at T+168 as the high moves NE'wards and
continues to build.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows high pressure over Biscay, leading to WSW'lies over
the UK. The high moves over the UK and builds at T+144, with light winds for
most.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
SSW'lies and SW'lies cover the UK, with a ridge over France and a trough to
the NW. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over western Scotland to +6C over
Cornwall. The winds become SW'lies for all at T+144, but by T+168 lighter
southerlies cover much of the UK as high pressure moves NE'wards over
Germany. Light winds (from a westerly quarter) continue to affect the UK on
day 8, followed by westerlies and SW'lies on day 9 as a weak ridge moves
eastwards. There's little change on day 10, although cooler air is moving
towards the UK from the west.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a similar setup, this time with moderate to strong
SSW'lies due to a ridge to the SE and a low well to the west of Scotland.
850hPa temperatures range from +1C over eastern areas of England and
Scotland to +5C over SW England. The winds become SW'lies for all at T+144
as the ridge over France slowly moves NE'wards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under westerlies due to a secondary low to the NW of Scotland.
850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over Northern Ireland and western Wales to
+1C over much of England and Scotland. SW'lies affect the UK at T+144 as
high pressure builds over France, followed by SSE'lies at T+168 as the high
merges with a ridge over Scandinavia (from a high to the SE of Svalbard).
SW'lies cover much of the UK on day 8 as the Svalbard high builds and sinks
southwards.

In summary, the models show warmer conditions on the way for next weekend,
with a good chance of a southerly flow setting in (GFS, JMA). This depends
on a high moving NE'wards over France, though, and as usual at this distance
the runs all differ on the exact track of the high. The MetO is the odd run
out today, showing the high moving over the UK instead. As ever, more runs
are needed.