Ian St. John wrote:
Morituri-|-Max wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...
I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and
following years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever
increasing number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make
Florida uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be
reached where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there
during the hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply
to correlate the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming
increases.

Survey says, not... there will be an increasing number, then a
decreasing number in a cycle. Etc etc.

True. The fourty year cycle seems to be established. Howver, the strength of
hurricanes depends on the temperature of the water and that is incrasing
under global warming. Probably the strength ( but not the number ) will be
enhanced slightly.


On drought in ND, the IPCC study showed the risks. ( see #6)

-Observed- = Confidence in Observed Changes:
-Projected- = Confidence in Projected changesa)

1: Higher maximum temperatures and more Very hot days over nearly all land
areas
-Observed-: Likely
-Projected-: Very likely

2: Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very cold days and frost days over
nearly all land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

3: Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

4: Increase of heat index over land areas.
-Observed-: Likely over many areas
-Projected-: Very likely over most areas

5: More intense precipitation events.(b)
-Observed-: Likely over many N.A. mid-high latitude land areas.
-Projected-: Very likely over many areas.

6: Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought.
-Observed-: Likely in a few areas
-Projected-: Likely over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Possible
elsewhere.

7: Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities.(c)
-Observed-: Not observed
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

8: Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities.(c)
-Observed-: N/A
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

a) For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10
(projections).

b) For other areas, there are either insufficient data or conflicting
analyses.

c) Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are
uncertain.

If we consider the amount of freshwater delivered to continents per
year is a fairly constant amount, a zero sum dynamics that lasts for
perhaps millions of years with little change. So if the increasing
Global Warming dumps most of its water on the coasts due to increasing
hurricane activity spells disaster for interiors of continents due to
drying and drought.

So the new pattern of rainfall under increasing Global Warming is to
make more water where there is already too much rainfall and to make
drying and drought for the interiors of continents.

But I think what will spur the drive to tackle Global Warming is not
the gradual turning of the agricultural Midwest of the USA as a desert
climate but rather the turning of the entire state of Florida and
surrounding Gulf Coast states as uninhabitable during the summer months
due to Hurricanes. If every year the people of Florida are forced to
evacuate 3, then 4, then 5, then 6 times in one year, soon those angry
people are going to demand the government do something about Global
Warming.

Turning the Midwest into a desert is gradual. Rising ocean levels and
rising coastlines is gradual. But the yearly evacuation of a state like
Florida is the final straw.

P.S. my spot of ground received a mere 0.6 cm of rainfall last night
which is too little for 2 months worth of rain. My currant bushes are
having a struggle.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies