In article ,
says...

Eric Swanson wrote:

In article . com,
says...

That storm has now been given a name: Tropical Storm NATE.

It is no threat to land, and I've already forgotten it exists. If you
are not flying or sailing out there, it don't mean nothing. It will
come say "boo" to the coast of Florida and disappear in a few days.


Tropical Depression #16 is spinning away over a warm SST patch around Andros
Island in the Bahamas to the east of Florida. Looking at the GOES satellite
shows three storms lined up across the Atlantic, with the newly named NATE
in
the middle. The leftmost storm is #16 and has been there for 2 days,
located
at roughly the same position that spawned Katrina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The storm system to the west may move into the Gulf and then we will be in
for
another round...


Rather than simply guessing, you (all) could look at the forecast...

I tried that with Katrina. For a couple of days, the forcasts predicted it
would turn to the north, first while it was east of Florida, then as it
tracked WSW, each forcast said it would turn north. It finally did and we
have seen the result.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. The latest
advisory (#2) says:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

In other words, they are guessing which way it will move.
The storm has moved 10 km in 6 hours....

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
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