Weather Banter - View Single Post - NEXT Storm prediction, the one AFTER Maria...

Eric Swanson · September 7th 05, 06:15 PM posted to sci.environment,sci.geo.meteorology

In article , says...

says...

7 Sept - Advisory #5 - 12 hours later - now moving north/northwest, MOL

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The projected track shows the storm missing landfall in Florida and turning
toward the NE, perhaps completely missing the US coast...

6 Sept - Advisory #3 - The latest position/speed information...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Comparing the lat/lon position change over the last 6 hrs, #16 appears to be
have moved almost due north.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. Advisory (#2) said:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
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