Pietro Sommavilla wrote:

Bill Habr wrote:

"Pietro Sommavilla" wrote in message
roups.com...

Bill Habr wrote:


"Lloyd Parker" wrote in message
...

How are these cycles known? Geez, you GW denialists are claiming we

can't

even know temp. 100 years ago, and now you're saying we know the

strength

of hurricanes 100 years ago?


Fact: The earth has been warming since the maximum of the past

glaciation.

(around 18000 years ago)

Fact: The frequency of observed hurricanes went through a cycle.

Point: Notice that I am talking about observed hurricanes.

Fact: Since we now have better observation now, the number of hurricanes

of

past hurricanes could be GREATER but will NOT be less.

Fact: The strength could be underestimated or overestimated before 1970.


Sorry, but I'm not convinced.
I think mother nature's trying desperately prove a point to people.

I mean, I'm not a scientist but I have readed many articles about on
the global warming issue.

According to some scientists the rising levels of green house gases
could triple the number of category 5 hurricanes.
http://www.realclimate.org/
(Hurricanes derive their power in part from warm water)

Problem:

Rita strengthened to the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane
in Gulf waters that were just about average.
The Gulf is normally a big bathtub this time of year.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....9.19.2005.gif

A pattern of reduced vertical shear has been in place for the
last ten years making it a strong suspect in the recent
storm increases.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm

But even the increases (likely also due to shear ) occurred before
in the 1945-1970 period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atlhist_lowres.gif

Is the weather around the world crazy or is it me?

I'd say you're both crazy.