"Science Cop" wrote in message
oups.com...
wrote:
It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment.
Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique
forecaster:

It wasn't quiet at all. The wind shears have been steady 20-25 mph
every day. That represents a lot of energy in itself.

Side to side energy prevents bottom to top energy from forming long
enough to get swirling. The side-to-side energy expendatures have been
far higher than this little infant tropical depression in one small
pocket of the seas.

If it doesn't have a name or a number it doesn't exist? The Tropical
Depression may have developed some winds up to 40 mph, but as gusts.
Until it sustains winds at 35 mph it doesn't get a name from the
weather service. The windshear across tens of thousands of miles of
ocean is "quiet" because it is blowing half the speed of this
depression only scores of miles in diameter?

20-25 mph winds over thousands of square miles is nothing, but 30 mph
in a small pocket is a big deal?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/160231.shtml
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Discussion Number 9
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
10 Pm EST Tue Nov 15 2005

It is impossible to locate the center of the depression with
conventional satellite imagery...so the advisory position and
motion are based on continuity of the earlier track. an ssmis
microwave pass at 0030z hints that the center may be racing more
quickly away from the convection though...and if this is the case
then the depression is on a fast track to dissipation. quikscat
ambiguities just in a few moments ago allow for the possibility
that a circulation is still present...but just barely. the
consensus of the dvorak intensity estimates remains below tropical
storm strength...so the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt for
this advisory. shear analyses from the gfs and uw/cimss indicate
there is still about 25 kt of westerly shear over the
depression...and it is quite possible that the circulation will
dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours.



Weather Action, November 14, 2005

News Release

Late season Caribbean storm - Numb 27 - forms
- Solar based long range forecast confirmed.
- Warning repeated for storm in Britain 20th-25th Nov.

TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27'
formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range
forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th

THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED.

Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted.

A "tropical depression" was never mentioned.



This forecast was first publicly announced by Piers Corbyn of Weather
Action at a meeting in the Royal Society on Weds 19th Oct and restated
in Press release (below) on Friday 21st Oct::

"....For the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm
or hurricane to form around the 13th to 16th November." Storms this

FWIW, "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" is a bit of a nonsense phrase
anyway. Tropical storms are just tropical storms, (minor) hurricanes are
category 1 or 2, and major hurricanes are category three or greater. The
failure to keep this terminology straight seems significant.

late in the season are unusual and this forecast is for a 'one in ten
year event' which is likely to cause damage. "It is absolutely nothing
to do with Global warming hype" said Mr Corbyn "but caused by
predictable special particle and magnetic effects from the Sun".


P.S. Here's the Oct 21 news release which started this thread

Weather Action, October 21, 2005

News Release

After Wilma - Weather Action Solar based forecasters predict another
Caribbean/Gulf hurricane mid November; and it's nothing to do with
'Global warming'

"Another Caribbean/Gulf damaging hurricane is likely to form in mid
November and it is nothing to do with so-called man made Global
Warming" announced Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of Weather Action the
solar-based long range forecasters today.

Piers Corbyn is known to attribute large planets for influencing the
sun to emit "solar particles" and influence the weather. The tropical
Atlantic-Carribean sea surface temperatures of October 21st would have
been expected to sustain a long hurricane season.

Note: there is no such thing as a "Major Tropical Storm" in weather
lexiconology, but "Major Hurricane" has a precise definition of having
winds in excess of 115 mph. Tropical Depression #27 has winds less than
the 35 mph sufficient to earn the name "Tropical Storm Gamma".

Corbyn has misrepresented himself as an "Astrophyicist". His theory of
planetary influence over the sun causing storms on earth is properly
called Astrology.

There is no plausible elucidated mechanism whereby any influence from
Jupiter on the Earth or Jupiter on the Sun can target specific
geographical locations on earth to influence weather at detailed points
on the planet. Physics does not produce any explanations favoring such
a theory but has a large storehouse of contradictory evidences.

Here is Jupiter's position for ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING:
http://www.nightskyinfo.com/
Night Sky This Week
November 14 - 20, 2005
"... Jupiter
Jupiter is visible in the morning twilight, rising two hours before the
Sun. The gas giant lies it the constellation Virgo and shines brightly
at magnitude -1.7. At 6 A.M. local time Jupiter is ten degrees above
the eastern horizon, high enough for telescopic observations at low
power. If you use high magnification the quality of the image will be
low, due to atmospheric turbulence. ..."

What this informs the reader is that Jupiter is on the far side of the
sun in it's current relationship to Earth's orbit. Any interactions
between the Sun and Jupiter are directed away from planet Earth. Any
solar leprechans or cosmic rays or other malarkey are not in any way
being focussed or directed towards the Earth, but in the opposite
direction away from the Earth.

Corbyn has made no explanations of the ABSENSE of influence being the
cause of severe Earth weather.

If you examine this ASTROLOGICAL CHART you can see the near-conjunction
of Jupiter and the Sun:
http://www.alabe.com/cgi-bin/chart/a...T5=Brewster,MA

Looking in the lower left, approximately 7:00 O'Clock position is what
looks like a W or upside down M. Inside that pie section are two
symbols, one looks like a "4" and one looks like a circle with a dot in
the middle. Those are Jupiter and the Sun, respectively, in
ASTROLOGICAL SYMBOLISM. They are both in the "House" of Scorpio (which
is the current month. What it means to be "in the house" is looking
from Earth past the celestial object one see's the constellation in the
background with the name "Scorpio". The Sun in the house of Scorpio is
the sunsign.

Both objects in the ASTROLOGICAL chart in the same house is given
weight by astrologers, quite the opposite of the weight given by
ASTROPHYICISTS. Physics says the gravitational influence is lower than
when Jupiter is high in the night sky instead of in the day sky.
Jupiter has less effect right now than it did in May, when Earth was
between Jupiter and the Sun. Any gravitational effects, any magnetic
effects, between the Sun and Jupiter had the Earth in the middle
between them. Where were the hurricanes of May? Where was Corbyn's
predictions of hurricanes in May?

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/0505...n_jupiter.html
Doorstep Astronomy: See Saturn and Jupiter Now!
By Joe Rao
SPACE.com Night Sky Columnist
posted: 06 May 2005
05:43 am ET
"... Saturn and Jupiter are easy to spot in the early evening sky now.

During the winter and early spring these planets were at their best
when they reached their respective oppositions to the Sun (Saturn on
January 13, Jupiter on April 3). At these occasions, besides shining at
their very brightest and appearing largest in telescopes, these two
planets were visible for the entire night, rising at sunset, attaining
their highest point in the sky at midnight and setting at sunrise. ..."


This forecast comes just after a major success by Weather Action in
forecasting high risk periods of tornado formation in Britain. The
tornado in Birmingham on Oct 12th dramatically confirmed the published
long range Weather Action forecast for such events in Britain in the
period Oct 10th-13th.

On Wednesday Mr Corbyn, attending a meeting at the Royal Society in
London, announced this breakthrough and roundly criticised 'Global
Warming Spin' for ridiculous claims that hurricane Katrina and other
catastrophic landfalling storms were effects of so-called man-made
Global warming . "The fact is there have been significantly less than
before, not more, of these storms in recent decades - especially in
the USA - " he said (see below**).

Corbyn is plain lying.

Location of Source Data:
http://tinyurl.com/7q4xp 1851-2002
Wikipedia 2003-2005

The Bottom Line:

PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE 1996-2005 to averages 1851-1995
144% MORE Tropical Storms, 1996-2005
47% MORE Hurricanes Category 1, 1996-2005
14% LESS Hurricanes Category 2, 1996-2005
52% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3, 1996-2005
90% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4, 1996-2005
257% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5, 1996-2005
(Upto 2005 Hurricane Wilma C5)

Figures recomputed and published Oct-19-2005 (includes up to Hurricane
Wilma C5 2005)
By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is
raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears.
Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it
reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair
comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the
true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past
decade.


Today he stated "New advances in our Solar Weather Technique of long
range forecasting (now SWT20a) confirm that periods of enhanced major
storm and tornado formation and development are primarily driven by
solar particle and magnetic effects and we can predict them many months
ahead.

We expect another period of major thunderstorms and potential tornado
formation in Britain around Oct 24th-27th; and for the Caribbean/Gulf
of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm or hurricane to form around
the 13th to 16th November."

He added "This is a one in ten year event so the Global warming
spinners will doubtless say it's all down to man-made CO2, but it's
not"

Thank you

The ONE YEAR IN TEN EVENT happened in 2003 Actually it was a once every
106 years event, when two storms developed even later in the season.
(It might be more impressive if Corbyn had put a prediction of that on
the record 6 weeks ahead of the fact -- Hurricane season goes through
NOVEMBER 30th FOR A REASON.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_At...rricane_season
... Two unusual events happened in the 2003 season. The first was the
formation of Tropical Storm Ana, the first Atlantic tropical storm on
record to form in April. The other was the December formation of
Tropical Storms Odette and Peter, making 2003 the first time two
Atlantic tropical storms formed in December since the 1887 hurricane
season. ...

Global warming means earlier starts and later finishes to the storm
seasons. More heat stays in the system over winter. More feedback heats
the waters hotter faster and they stay hotter longer into the year.

2005 had one of the earliest starts on record, in fact record-breaking
early storms:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_At...rricane_season
... The season began very quickly, with seven tropical storms and two
major hurricanes forming before August, setting numerous records for
number and strength of storms. The season ended up breaking sixteen
records for earliest forming storms; i.e., the fifth storm of the
season formed well before any other fifth storm in a season. The trend
did not let up, and more storms formed in October than any other month
in the year, even though the hurricane season traditionally peaks in
September. In total so far, twenty-three named storms and twenty-seven
tropical depressions have formed, surpassing many records for storm
formation in the Atlantic. ...

Predicting weather and hurricanes may be an "inate" talent of Corbyn's,
but that is yet to be determined. The human brain can process
ASTRONOMICAL quantities of information, beyond all the supercomputers
in the world put together. Unfortunately few know how to do this
consciously and under control. It very well might be that subliminally
Corbyn is processing data which leads him to better than average
successes in predicting (but not far better, only slightly better than
average). It does not however have anything to do with replicatable
science and laws of physics. The term is for someone who does this is
idiot savant.