In article ,
James Annan wrote:

Steve Schulin wrote:

In article E05ff.114013$S4.84492@edtnps84,
"Coby Beck" wrote:


Ok, so we all agree that this prediction failed, though it was close. ...


I don't think we agree on the implications of what's transpired in this
case. At 4 AM on November 15, 2005, the National Hurricane Center
discussed TD27, noting, in part, that "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN."

Followed immediately by "HOWEVER"...and a bunch of reasons as to why
they thought this was unlikely.

There was indeed discussion of the official forecast. Yet the forecast
remained the forecast. I encourage skepticism, but the fact remains that
the Weather Action news release of Oct 21 described the NHC official
forecast of Nov 15 quite well.

Meanwhile, Piers Corbyn claimed even as recently as the 15th Nov that
"We find it is likely to become revitalized rather than to weaken from
around the 18th."

I guess we'll find out over the next day or two how right he was...it
seems remiss of the relevant authorities to not have ordered evacuations
in the relevant areas.

LOL - thanks for the reminder. A no-regrets early movement of snow
shovels from shed to garage seems appropriate for us Marylanders.

I see no sign of the promised "major Atlantic storm" in the 20-25 Nov
which will affect the UK, but I confidently predict there will be at
least a light breeze somewhere at some point in that interval.

James

Very truly,

Steve Schulin
http://www.nuclear.com