"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:23:52 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained
!

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO)
which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Why does it? 1976 was a hot summer following a hot summer.

Where is the scientific paper about this QBO?

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

JPG

I am not joking, but I have been reading "Weather Cycles" by
Burroughs ISBN 0 521 52822 4, and he points out that as soon
as you identiy a weather cycle it stops working!

A quick search with www.google.com will soon find you plenty on
the QBO. Note that it is quasi, and so it varies and its average
length is 27 months. That would account for 1976 being hot, as
well as 2003. They are exactly 12 QBO cycles apart.

AFAIK there is no explanation for the QBO, so I cannot explain
why it should produce its effects. Moreover the solar cycle (sun
spots) and the ENSO will also have an effect.

Cheers, Alastair.