"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
snip
Summary valid for Sunday 25/06/06 to Saturday 01/07/07/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 22/06/06 0900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF,
UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate this week at 60% for all aspects of the
forecast.

For the first half of the week (Sunday to Tuesday), all parts of the
UK should
have spells of sunshine with light winds. 60% chance of some showers
in the
south-east of England on Monday

.... looking at the latest GFS (deterministic) output, some horrendous
rainfall totals implied for Kent / Essex - picking spots like Canterbury
and you get around 70-85mm from early hours of Monday to midday, and in
Essex (say Colchester), around 70mm. However, the GFES (ensemble) output
for those points are not nearly so dire, with around 5 to 10 mm at most.
Given that as time goes on, the events usually get 'shunted to the
right' and that there are great doubts about the whole evolution in the
NE Atlantic, then the more modest totals are probably nearer the truth -
but certainly going to be one to watch!

Martin.


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