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Looks like A Good Old Fashioned MCS From France tomorrow night for the South
East, these things usually kick off at about Midnight and continue until
5-6am, so could have some great Photo Ops, after that if anyone is
Interested Myself and Nick F are going on a Storm Chase on Wednesday, and
Paul is kindly Nowcasting for us giving us regular Updates to Nick's Mobile
of Radar etc, if you want to join in let me know, hopefully the MCS Will
have cleared through and we can find some good convection for Photos.
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PJB - ECMWF, UKMeso, HIRLAM, GFS all agree on Active Thunderstorms
developing over N France later tomorrow as a strong lobe of vorticity
crosses north and completely destabilises the hot plume beneath. Reasonable
Shear Vorticity aloft along NW side of SW Jet creates potential for Intense
Thunderstorms to track N tomorrow evening and night as a developing MCS. GFS
/ Hirlam track towards the SE. ECMWF closer to CS England where it produces
large 6,12 and 24 hr totals. Hail / Flash Flooding and Strong Gusts are
possible 18Z -06Z Overnight at some locations across the South.
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