Nick G wrote:
A non-expert conclusion from this would suggest that the 'hot summer'
pattern has broken and that August is unlikely to be as notable as the
earlier part of the summer but any thoughts?

There is so much uncertainty in the current forecasts. Gibbsy on CF was
quite unsure how and when the breakdown in the forthcoming heatwave would
happen. So trying to have thoughts of August's likely weather seems to be
near on impossible at the moment.

Lamb described that in around 70% of cases, the weather is likely to
continue in its present general theme, i.e., warm and relatively settled.
The odds are then that August will continue as June and July have done.

Looking at the long range forecasts they seem to hint at the Azores High
making more an influence after next week, but as we all know, they are
notoriously unreliable.

I got a different impression except he was not able to pin down the day
it all changes. The deepish Atlantic low he showed is available at
traditional websites near you. The one I was looking at yesterday gave
the date for it to appear as the 26th (may I mention that the change of
phase is on the 25th?)

All we can presume is that it will be there at about that date. You
wouldn't expect him to be able to give a date for when it moves in on
us would you?

We are in a year of great seismic disturbance (following on from an
year of great hurricane activity.) I have been propounding for years,
that these things drastically change weather models overnight.

Or have you been ignoring nme?

Never mind Lamb's statistics. Just stick to the facts. He may have
meant well but statistics don't mean squat in meteorology.