"Bonos Ego" wrote in message
oups.com...
August 8, 2006 - With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season
upon
us, experts from NOAA are reiterating their prediction for an
above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's
relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder
of
the season has in store.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2678.htm

Comparing last year at this time:-
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

with this year:-
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

It is noticeable that we have not got the marked (and reasonably large)
'warm patch' just east of the Lesser Antilles, though the NOAA statement
says that the sea temperatures are still generally above average. There
is a complication, as I understand that the climatology used for these
anomaly maps has changed, and of course whether or not fully-formed T/S
develop is not just a case of lifting the SST's etc.

It will be interesting to see how this year's Hurricane season works
out, as in my mind, we need some of the 'debris' development from that
side of the Atlantic to kick our own synoptic patterns into a different
gear: it's all got a bit 'stuck' at the moment!

Martin.


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