Weatherlawyer wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...006/index.html

Tropical Storm Debby would probably become the first hurricane of
the 2006 season, now nearly half over.
Alberto, Beryl and Chris dissipated without qualifying as hurricanes.
Instead of 8 to 10 hurricanes predicted in May, 7 to 9 are more likely.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/sc...rtner=homepage

In my ignorance I am presuming that the rest of the world has suffered
or enjoyed a normal tropical storm/cyclone season. It appears that
North Atlantic hurricanes depend on the degree of intensity of the NAO;
which is independent of oscillations in other oceans.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a function of the Arctic not a
direct function of the phases of the moon. Thus the Hurricane
season is only half the year and most intense at the times
of least ice cover in the Arctic.

9 AUG. 10 54 and 16 AUG. 01 51; should have been fine spells.
They weren't.

23 AUG. 19:10. Wet. This spell saw the return of the NAO to normal,
positive conditions.

31 AUG. 22:57. This aught to be a fine spell with little cloud.

7 SEPT. 18:42. If the NAO remains positive this one will produce an
hurricane.

I can't see it lasting very long though, as the next three spells are
all very similar and all inclined to fine weather:
14 SEPT. 11:15
22 SEPT. 11:45. This could be an exception with elongated air masses
(ridges and troughs with a tendency to form cols around the UK.)
30 SEPT. 11:04

7.OCT. 03:13. A classical thundery spell.
14 OCT. 00:26. More wet. With mists which tend to occur along with
hurricanes.

22 OCT. 05:14. Fine.

29 OCT. 21:25. Another extra tropical will appear here as troughs of
low pressure dominate over the UK.
5 NOV 12:58. And if it lasts the spell the storm or storms will
intensify as wet weather covers the UK.
12 NOV. 17:45. More misty or damp drizzly weather, hence more
hurricanes.
20 NOV. 22:18. This will be the height of the season in my opinion.
28 NOV. 06:29. These last three spells are all much the same.
5 DEC 00:25. So look out for an intense earthquake when the next spells
take over.

12 DEC. 14:32. These spells too are much the same as each other in the
same manner as those of the 14th, 22nd and 30th of September were.
20 DEC. 14:01. The wet spell might overrun into the last spell but if
the NAO has remained positive all through the above this is a classic
fine spell.
27 DEC. 14:48. But it is not likely to return to the winter storms that
dominated British weather around Christmas time not all that long ago.
3 JAN.13 57. Not with these spells.