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Old September 15th 06, 09:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Weatherlawyer Weatherlawyer is offline
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Default Today's model interpretation (15/09/06)


Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Fri, 15 Sep 2006 05:36:45 -0000, "Darren Prescott" none@no,dns
wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0532z, 15 September 2006.

The models are mixed today. The general theme is an unsettled one, with low
pressure to the north or west and SW'lies or WSW'lies as a result. Beyond
that there are signs that a large low to the west will drag southerlies
across the UK


That'large low' I think is the remains of Gordon - or rather, son of
Gordon?!


And the spaghetti in the forecasts preceding it contain lows that (all
else being equal) have lead the unwary into reasoning that the so
called negative NOA is (or rather was) over.

It would seem now, that with a "negative" NAO, the extra tropicals are
more inclined to flow north as (opposed to west) thus feeding deeper
low pressures into the mix than are coming from the west as in the
"normal" course of events.

The Canadian sourced Lows are nowhere nearly as deep as the Lows from
the southern North Atlantic. Take a look at the one coming along
tomorrow:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2

Needless to say the thing is likely to enter the Arctic and rather than
end at the same time that a large magnitude earthquake occurs somewhere
or other on the planet, there is likely to be a serious eruption of a
volcano or two.