Paul Bartlett wrote:

What Ho! Last I heard the Office were going for a warmer and wetter
winter compared to last year. Which doesn't tell me a lot after a dry
and average winter 2005/2006.
I have been away for a while and may have missed the September update -
can anyone help?
Cheers
Paul


At the end of May, following a similar enquiry, I forecast what the Met
Office winter forecast would be and gave the following reply.

"Looking at the SST anomaly pattern at the moment, I'd go for higher than
normal pressure near the Azores and lower between Scotland and Iceland,
resulting in a mild, wet, westerly, type of winter. Having said that,
there's still time for the SST pattern to change."

I don't think that was too far out. However, the last sentence has also been
proved accurate. If I was to have another stab at it, based on SST
anomalies alone, with a cold pool now south of the Grand Banks, I'd suggest
an almost reverse setup with more easterlies and cooler weather than usual
over the UK. However, the SST pattern was similar in 1997 and, if I
remember rightly, it was a mild winter in spite of the SST pattern. That
year, like this, was also an El Nino year and that may have screwed things
up as regards to us getting a cold winter.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell