Graham P Davis wrote:
At the end of May, following a similar enquiry, I forecast what the Met
Office winter forecast would be and gave the following reply.
"Looking at the SST anomaly pattern at the moment, I'd go for higher than
normal pressure near the Azores and lower between Scotland and Iceland,
resulting in a mild, wet, westerly, type of winter. Having said that,
there's still time for the SST pattern to change."
I don't think that was too far out. However, the last sentence has also been
proved accurate. If I was to have another stab at it, based on SST
anomalies alone, with a cold pool now south of the Grand Banks, I'd suggest
an almost reverse setup with more easterlies and cooler weather than usual
over the UK. However, the SST pattern was similar in 1997 and, if I
remember rightly, it was a mild winter in spite of the SST pattern. That
year, like this, was also an El Nino year and that may have screwed things
up as regards to us getting a cold winter.
Thankyou Graham, I always read your posts closely as I have for a long
time felt SST's hold much of the key.
A couple of things, I keep looking at the SST's but don't really see
much of an El Nino: Yet? Maybe I'm expecting reds across most of the
equatorial eastern Pacific! Although it is stated as a 'mild' El Nino.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif
Secondly, the cool pool to the south of NFL is pretty small and fairly
recent, as the last couple of months the SST anomalies have been high
across most of the Atlantic at our latitudes and average to cool nearer
the equator, which made me think this was the reason for the quiet
hurricane season, until the change over the last couple of weeks, hence
Gordon, Helene and the like. Also interesting how they are taking a
completely different path to last years, must be some other differing
circulation(s) in the atmosphere. I was also thinking that we would have
a wet autumn due to those high SST's. Of course autumns not really
started yet.
I only mentioned these things for comment really, as no way would I want
to question your thoughts, infact that ounce of a hard winter was what
woke me up grin
Regards
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net