Weatherlawyer wrote:

This year the weather over the North Atlantic has shown us a remarkable
amount of new things to learn more about.

This month is interesting in that these phases:
31 AUG. 22:57
7 SEPT. 18:42
14 SEPT. 11:15
Should have provided the opposite effects to what occurred. When such a
phenomenon arrives in a positive NAO cycle, the phenomenon will end with a
large magnitude earthquake and/or (in its season) a North Atlantic Hurricane.

It would seem that these events turn into volcanic activity elsewhere
when the NAO is negative. Of course, as with all aspects of the humanities,
the truth is strikingly obvious once you see it.

And only a fool would jump to conclusions and promulgate them in the
face of adversity. But...

For want of suitable data to prove or disprove it, the evidence at
first sight suggests that: When an hurricane does occur during a
negative NAO, then the track tends toward the north rather than heading
for the USA.

That may be why the southern regions of the UK are like the doldrums
for cyclones. It is well known that despite a propensity toward flat
calms, the equatorial oceans seldom get cyclones of any considerable
strength.

They are caught between two worlds as it were. Likewise the south of
England lies between the two most virulent cyclonic regions in the
North Atlantic: Iceland and Biscay.

Scotland has vicious gales all the time. The Home Counties: once a
century. So what is the reason for the UK seldom getting earthquakes
and never getting volcanic eruptions? (Come to that, what is so special
about Italy?)

Here is another one:

My forecasts would certainly not stand up to scrutiny this year. Last
year I was pretty successful. All due to the North Atlantic
Oscillation.

The trouble is, they only look at records for mid winter to gauge that.
So it has not been declared negative by anyone but me despite the
remarks about the strange weather on usenet weather forums.

At least I can content myself with being right about that, several
months ahead of everyone else, I suppose.

You probably already know this but the ramifications of it may not be
clear to you:

The state of the Southern Oscillation is gauged by sea surface
temperatures over a six month period (I think) with Xmess in the
middle. The idea of the oscillation is based on high and low pressure
zones in (IIRC) Indonesia and the other side of the Pacific (not sure
but I will look it up one day -unless someone wants to do me a favour.)

Anyway the air pressure records are readily available for everyone to
see but the damned fools insist that the declaring of an El Nino or La
Nina event is based on ocean surface temperatures and the variation is
something in the order of less than half of a degree Centigrade, about
..4*C -little more than 1 degree F.

That's without looking at temperature differences for states in between
El Nino and La Ninas.

DOUBLE EFF! That's a value for work done by Bart Simpson and worthy of
some of the trolls who post here. Why does the name Jenkins come to
mind?

If they published the state of play of the system by reference to the
O/A air pressures we could all see the state, day to day -and we would
be forced to accept that the cause is easily the same cause I have been
expounding for decades. And CAN be predicted years -decades in advance.