Thread: Helene
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Old September 22nd 06, 11:27 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
BlueLightning BlueLightning is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Dec 2004
Posts: 663
Default Helene

Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
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INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
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I bloody well hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

108KT Extra-Tropical Storm. Jesus

Maybe Gordon was only the warm-up !!