"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...


Latest NHC update has it reaching Ireland as a weakening extratropical low
in 5 days. Apparently it will lose some of its baroclinic support. Not
worth
getting excited about.


Must admit I'm not convinced by the NHC's latest projected cone/path as it
appears to be at odds with EC and the 18Z GFS, both of which appear to hold
it as fairly slow moving filling feature near the Azores during this period.


All the models have been varying of late but over the last day or so the
operational output from EC now appears to have settled on the above or
similar which perhaps lends some weight to this solution. Conversely the raw
12Z MetO GM suggests something similar to the NHC's official projection but
a quick comparison with the MetO finalised charts would suggest this has
been discounted in favour of the slower evolution as per EC and the latest
GFS.

Jon.