Martin Rowley wrote:
"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea
temp charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very
little evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.
... Perhaps more along the equator, though signs of same should be
apparent at that latitude on the South American side.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif
... I tend to look at the TOGA/ TAO data display from the array
specifically set up to monitor this region: find the main page and data
from:-
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/proj_over.html
(also plenty of reading on what constitutes El Niņo etc.)
At the moment, I would tend to agree with you that there is no sign of a
*major* event occurring: even by the definitions found on this site, the
situation currently looks not very far from 'normal', though tending to
a 'warm' ENSO event - especially with warm 'blobs' further west in the
Pacific, which could 'slosh' back towards the east if/when the trades
fail.
The problem is that every appearance of anomalously warm waters gets
labelled as an El Niņo,
Quite.
In fact I've just looked at SST anomalies for late September (26th or
27th) in 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 & they are all remarkably similar. Not
just that they all seem to indicate a weak El Nino, but the north
Atlantic patterns are also remarkably similar. So all recent years have
shown a similar anamoly to the norm, so the norm is now anomolous!
Graham
Penzance