Thread: El Nino
View Single Post
  #8   Report Post  
Old September 29th 06, 09:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Graham P Davis Graham P Davis is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Oct 2004
Posts: 4,814
Default El Nino

Martin Rowley wrote:


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

Shows up OK at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. Look
at the
Equator - not 10S. Admittedly not one of the strongest but looks like
an El
Nino to me.


... well now, I'm thoroughly confused! The TAO display, explicitly set
up to monitor these events, shows nothing 'worse' than +0.5degC or a
little higher in the 100-120degW zone; the map you have pointed to
appears to indicate up to 3degC or even higher anomalies! Even allowing
that the base-climatology may be different, that's a big difference.


Looking at the TAO display this morning, there is no data east of 120W! I'll
have to try again later. No - I've found another plot (5-day mean) that has
the missing area. This shows 95-120W to be 0.5 to 1.0C above normal.

The TAO data is from 70 buoys whereas the NOAA data is satellite only. The
climatology base is 1971-2000 for TAO. NOAA uses a base of 1984-93
satellite data but with 91 and 92 removed due to contamination from the
Pinatubo eruption.

Given the differences in data and climatology, and the short period of the
NOAA climatology, it's probably safer to compare one year with another
rather than look at a single anomaly chart. The NOAA site is particularly
useful, with anomaly charts available from 1984 to date (it says 1983 but
that year was also removed due to contamination). 26/09/1997 certainly
looks more impressive than 26/09/2006!

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell