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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 15/10/06 to Saturday 21/10/06
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/10/06 2100 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
High confidence that high pressure will become established to the NW of UK later
in the week establishing a very cold north or northeasterly airflow across
Britain by next weekend. Low confidence on details of change and on how fast the
very cold air with night frosts spreads to southern areas. The daily breakdown
below is a best estimate and timing could be out, but confidence in the sequence
is moderate.
Sunday looks like being a dry day in most areas but with a stiff east wind in
southern counties. Possibly gusting to gale force near some hill summits in the
southwest as air becomes trapped under an inversion. Lighter and mainly easterly
winds further north. Spells of sunshine in all parts after an early frost in
northern areas. Temperatures rising to 14C in the north and up to 18C in the
south.
On Monday little change is expected, except it will be a little cooler and the
winds should ease in the south. Still some sunshine after a frost in places at
first. However, showers are likely to develop in southern areas during the day.
On Tuesday, showers can be expected to break out more widely with sunny spells
in between. Some of them could be heavy and perhaps thundery. Winds probably
turning light southerly over England and Wales, however, a cold east or
northeast wind looks like setting in over Scotland, possibly bringing heavy rain
and low cloud to eastern parts. Temperatures lower over Scotland but a little
warmer again in the south reaching 17C in places.
On Wednesday rain looks like setting in over most of Britain as colder air
pushes south. Some of the rain looks again likely to be heavy and slow moving,
so a risk of localised flooding. Temperatures starting to fall quickly in the
north to around 10C and becoming close to normal in the south at around 14C. A
strong to gale northeast wind establishing itself over Scotland as it turns
drier. Winds lighter and variable further south but turning easterly later.
On Thursday and Friday very cold fresh to strong north or northeast winds look
like spreading south. These will clear the rain southwards eventually but still
a prolonged spell of heavy rain likely in the south for a while. Temperatures
plummeting in the cold air, falling to -2C at night in the north and by Friday
daytime ranging from 7C in Scotland to 12C in the southwest. Showers setting in
in the cold air, mostly to eastern and northern parts with some western areas
turning sunny. Showers turning increasingly to sleet and snow over the
Highlands.
At this stage it looks like staying cold and showery into next weekend with some
more snow for the Highlands. Risk of frost at night in all areas, even in the
south. However, SE England could see another spell of rain as it turns slightly
warmer again. Winds slowly easing over the weekend but low confidence on this.
Will Hand
Chief Forecaster HMO/USW
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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