Summary valid for Sunday 22/10/06 to Saturday 28/10/06
TOI (time of issue) Friday 20/10/06 1800 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Well as hinted in last week's forecast when confidence on timing was low the
colder air is taking its time pushing south. However, I am still confident in
the sequence of colder air pushing south across Britain during next week, less
confident on when.

At least from Sunday to Tuesday it looks like we will have a continuation of
present conditions. that is, spells of rain, sometimes heavy, interspersed with
drier interludes. Winds generally light to moderate and variable in direction
with continued risk of fog at night. Temperatures generally above average with
pockets of ground frost at night. However, on Tuesday it should turn colder in
northern Scotland with temperatures falling during the day up there.

On Wednesday and Thursday there is a risk of strong to gale force
easterly winds
in the south with heavy rain otherwise slowly turning colder from the
north as a
moderate north or northwesterly breeze sets in. As the colder air spreads south
it should turn brighter with sunny spells and showers, showers mainly on
windward coasts and hills and turning wintry over the Highlands.

I wonder if the old weather 'memory effect' trick will ruin your
forecast again WIll? Could it be that the Dartmoore Office will have to
issue an apology for the late arrival of autumn, due to the wrong kind
of trough disruption on the isobar lines at Penzance.. ;-))

Keep up the good work
Cheers
James
--
James Brown