"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
Very odd - slightly at odds with the BBC Breakfast forecast that had
the big fat BBC important font with "Storm Warning" talking about
70mph, possibly 80mph winds on the coasts.

.... I don't know if you are privy to the various output from different
models, but from what I've seen, the way the solutions are *still*
wobbling about even at this (relatively) short lead time (this written
at 1000Z) will give rise to much head scratching. It's not surprising
(to me anyway) that the various forecasts are apparently not in tune:
each 6-hourly guidance will need to nudge the story - and with the
potential for a tight gradient flow tied to a low that no-one is
absolutely sure where it's going (hasn't formed yet), the story could
swing markedly.

This event shows starkly that even at a lead time of much less than
24hours, there is NO such thing as a 'perfect' forecast (whether wind,
snow, heavy rain etc.), and despite all the computers, radar,
satellites, drifting buoys, fancy conceptual models in glossy magazines
written well after the event, at the end of the day, it's down to a
decision of one man on the bench.

Martin.


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