"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
A breezy night, but nothing exceptional, I see Heathrow has only
managed a 25KT gust to 0550Z. TAFs including the TRENDs on the night
METARs all going for something higher. Is it still to come ?

.... I hold my hand up and say that I for one expected something stronger
than the damp squib we got last night - not quite as strong as some
other indications: I pencilled a note here of 50-55mph for us, which
whilst not particularly notable (we've got few leaves if any on the
trees for example), might have brought some weaker branches down, or
turned over an advertising hoarding; as you say, nothing of note.

I can only assume, without looking at it closely, that the wave did not
become engaged with the cold-side/diffluent area of the jet. This latter
was certainly strong enough to cause significant runaway development,
but looking at the 300 and 500 patterns this morning, I wonder if the
long-wave trough to the west became so distorted at its base (by the
major area of convection forming there), that the wave never had a
chance to 'engage': a bit like someone running after an accelerating
bus!

The Low in the cold air (the one chasing the heavy thundery rain over us
now) may also have been a factor in 'confusing' the various model
atmospheres. Arpege in particular had a *major* low, with 50kn mean
winds in the western Channel at 06Z this morning - if that had come off,
we would really have been in trouble.

There will be much head scratching - not least because even up to 12hr
before the event, *all* the models were all over the place. It's too
easy to throw stones and 'blame' the forecasters for no storm, but
having been in that position, I have to say that I would not have done
much different.

Martin.