Some weeks ago I mentioned , in a half joking post , that I thought the
next month in line to be the warmest in the CE temperature record might be
December. Is it time to take this more seriously?
Look at the facts - this year July and September both beat the long term
records for warmth, October, which set a new record for warmth in 2001 ,
came close to beating it in 2005 and again his year. The last 3 weeks of
November have almost equalled the astonishing warmth of November 1994.
December, in recent years, has gone against the warming trend and the last
significant warm month was in 1994. It is tempting to suggest that the next
warm one is due.

In an attempt to get away from the relentless westerlies, which show no sign
of giving way, I looked at my diary for 1969( I hardly needed to look as I
knew what it showed anyway!) Cold air from the north arrived on 28 November
when rain turned to snow even in the south. On the 29th, the maximum here
was 0c and a polar trough produced a snowfall which lasted 2 and a half
hours. I then had 3 consecutive mornings with a snowcover. Daytime
temperatures here then were lower than those being achieved now in
Iceland, Scandinavia and eastern Europe. I know that too much mustn't be
read into isolated events but, nevertheless, there will need to a drastic
change for cold conditions to develop in December.

In recent weeks, several medium range forecasts have suggested cold spells
in late November. None has turned up, the westerlies have keep going with
increasing vigour and show no sign of giving up.

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that December will be a very mild
month, perhaps with a quiet spell mid-month with a frosty night or two. It
seems highly unlikely, after all these warm months since May that , out of
the blue, December will be cold.. I am going to keep the long term warm
records for the month handy.

I should be very interested to hear whether anyone in the Group can be more
optimistic for a decent cold spell in December and will be quite cheerful if
I am proved to be wrong.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m