"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
2030

After Graham's recent post I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy now, despite
my
being in shelter. Wind is picking up gradually and pressure is falling
rapidly.
Recent gust 48 mph at 10m agl with mean speed 20 mph. I don't like that
gust
factor of 2.4. Sleepless night ahead I feel.

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

Will, the 12Z NAE had gradient winds of 60-70KT ahead of the cold
front/occlusion and 80KT or so at first tonight. Line convection was also
evident with a non-zero risk of tornadic activity (your diagnostics have
already signalled low PROBs in the far west). Also of note were 50KT 10m
winds in the southern Irish Sea/western English Channel tonight and then
later tomorrow in the northern Irish Sea. As per
http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf024.gif
Potent stuff with the key uncertainty being what percentage of the gradient
winds will be realised at the surface, particulalry inland.


Cheers Jon. Confirms my earlier suspicions that any damaging gusts will be on
the front itself.
Fortunately for me the hills to my west tend to break up frontal structure a bit
when they come in from that direction.

Will.
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