I don't know about ECMWF, the Met-Office have made a right pigs-ear of
theirs.

Not to mention the fact that they couldn't forecast the 'Potential for
Tornadic' activity last Wednesday over Southern Counties, when a
certain armature forecaster by the name of Bono's Ego ©, was able to
forecast the potential at 19:00hrs the night before from looking at the
charts.

http://www.met-monkey.co.uk/weather....pic.php?t=3059