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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 17/12/06 to Saturday 23/12/06
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 14/12/06 2000 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Very high confidence for a complete change of weather pattern next week with an
anticyclone dominating the weather after Monday.
On Sunday southern areas look like being dry with sunny spells and temperatures
around normal (7C-9C) in light winds. Further north, a weak Atlantic frontal
system will spread cloud and rain south from the northwest. Winds mainly
westerly moderate. Rain turning to snow above 500m asl. Temperatures around
normal in the range 6-8C.
On Monday the frontal system will push south and bring occasional rain or
showers, mainly to western parts. Rather cold with the rain turning to snow on
all hills above 400m asl. Rain and snow dying out from the north during the day.
Some eastern parts staying dry. Temperatures generally 5-8C in populated areas,
coldest in the north. A frost is likely on Monday night as skies clear and winds
turn light or calm.
On Tuesday an anticyclone will build over Britain bringing a mainly dry day with
spells of sunshine and light winds. A moderate frost setting in on Tuesday
evening probably giving the coldest night of the winter so far. Fog patches too.
On Wednesday and Thursday cloud amounts will be variable and cloud will tend to
increase generally reducing the prevalence of frost at night, daytime
temperatures close to normal in the range 5-8C. In the south, a fresh east wind
could set in lifting overnight temperatures. Conversely in NW Scotland a
freshening SW wind will introduce much milder air and possibly some drizzle.
Friday and Saturday look like remaining mainly dry and rather cloudy with
overnight temperatures likely to be close to or a little above freezing.
Position of the anticyclone is uncertain, however, on balance it looks like a
fresh east or southeast wind could set in over England and Wales. Not
particularly cold with temperatures close to normal at around 6 or 7C. Possibly
milder in NW Scotland and Northern Ireland with a fetch off the Atlantic.
Too early to forecast for Christmas yet!
Now the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for 16th/17th December for
all areas above 200m asl.
On Saturday overnight rain will clear away south during the morning followed by
a sunny afternoon with good visibility and light winds. Temperatures falling
during the day to around 5-6C by the end of the afternoon. A ground frost on
Saturday night with temperatures close to freezing followed by a fine and bright
day on Sunday with light winds. Turning more cloudy during the day. Temperatures
4-6C depending on altitude. Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow spreading down
from the north on Sunday night into Monday morning. Sleet and snow mainly above
400m asl and unlikely to amount to much.
Will Hand
Chief Forecaster HMO/USW
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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