535.9 J/kg of energy waiting to be released already at 12Z at Watnall, if
the cap suppressing convection at 800hPa is overcome. If this was to
happen we'd have at least 1000J/kg of CAPE. However, as has been the case
the last few days, all the ingredients are there for thunderstorms but
nothing to trigger it. The higher ground around Yorkshire did this last
night.
ATB, Joe
Looks rather dry below 500hPa tho Joe.The Basel model-
http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/
(thanks Martin )
suggests the CAPE is concentrated just south of the Wash in E Anglia.But maybe along the Cottesmore
ridge or Lincoln Edge and south of there wld provide updrafts ?VIS imagery suggests the notional
cold front mvg east,surface wind veer cld be the trigger.

Anyway,looks like the main breakdown is gonna be low key as the upper forcing arrives too late to
phase with the Theta w plume.(I won't mention the M**s ;-))

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)