"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g
12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the
last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at
low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will
be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is
still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky
flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything
yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

I must admit Will, in my limited understanding of the various models,
the GFS in it's latest run has 'firmed up' again and there is also some
support from the other models as well.
To coin a phrase, more runs are needed.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl