"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be
ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a
tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further
east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia
with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72.
GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold
based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.

12Z EC ensemble data showed a good split at T+168 and if anything the bias
was towards the colder solutions, say 60/40. GFS operational run now showing
good inter-run consistency in terms of the broadscale pattern.
Things could get interesting if we end up with the slow moving frontal zone
in our part of the world as the GFS is indicating.

Jon.