"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder
more
progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep
cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected
proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've
thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is
still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%.

Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the
MetO
GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for
the
UK.

Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to
become
properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this
winter.

Jon.

Jon,
Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the
Day 6 to 15:
"However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and
perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this remains
in the balance"
although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday the
23rd I'm not sure.

Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a
mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the
change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to
milder weather...

Phil