I think the thing to remember is that the 1/8 chance compares to what is
supposed to be 1/150 to 1/200 chance. So there is a higher chance than
normal but still a higher chance that it wont happen.

Stan

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Col
writes

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
. ..


My reading of the press release was and is is that the summer is
expected to be typical of recent years, in terms of temperature and
rainfall. Unfortunately, the way it is worded will indeed lead much of
the press to interpret it as you suggest in your final sentence. Such
loosely worded statemements should have no place on the Met Office's
website or in any Met Office publication.

But it also means that there will be a 7 in 8 chance that ther're
*won't* be temperatures as experienced in 2003 and 2006.
Really, I don't know what they are supposed to do if they
are to relaease long-term forecasts, they are always gonig
to turn out rather vague and 'loosely worded'
Any precise detail is impossible, so the probabilistic route is
probably(!) the best one to take.

Perhaps it would be more appropriate to emphasis the conditions that have
a 7 in 8 chance of occurring rather than those that have only a 1 in 8
chance.

Norman'
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England