Jeremy Handscomb wrote in message ...
:I can't seem to find Will's original post on the forum about Wednesdays's
:Low. I would be interested to read it - can anyone point me in the right
:direction?

This was Will's post made at 22.32 on Saturday.

Colin Youngs
Brussels
_______________________________

"Just had a *very* close look at all the outputs for Tuesday/Wednesday's low
from
the latest GFS (1200) runs and it *potentially* looks very very nasty indeed
for
the time of year.

We have the prospect of

(a) Very heavy and prolonged rain to the north/northwest of the low giving
the
potential for flooding due to rapid run-off from hard ground.

(b) Potential thunderstorms in unstable sector to the south of the low with
obvious implications for outdoor activities and

(c) A possibility of a "Sting jet" bringing a narrow swathe of storm force
winds
in the SW quadrant of the low. SW England is under obvious threat from this
and
with trees in full leaf the effects could be disastrous.

I must stress that these are only possibilities which I *personally* rate at
50%
of *one* of them coming off. It all depends on phasing of the upper trough
with
the developing low, and of course, timing. There is a very distinct
possibility
of later deepening which would place all the "action" in the North Sea. The
1200
GMT MetO global model run labelled "UKMO" on 'wetterzentrale' more than
hints at
this.

So there it is a warning of the *possibilities*.

Either way we can be much more certain (80%) as I said in my weekly forecast
last Thursday of the long dry spell over England and Wales finally coming to
an
end.

Cheers,
Will."