In article , Bob Brown . wrote:
On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote:

Bob Brown pisze:
This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming

We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it.

perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100?

The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical
area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people
claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer
modeling?

Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables,
with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something
with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your
error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%.

Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2
variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the
pollster.



In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record.

1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal)
2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record
3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record
4) October 2006 - very warm
3) November 2006 - second warmest
4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal)
5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal)
6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record
7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal)
8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east.
9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record
10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record.
11) April 2007 - very warm.

I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and
declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it
means nothing.

Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me
how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your
life?

How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against
say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds
compared to 80 years of life.

1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years?

In the long run, we are all dead.

Then again, you also don't believe that the earth is 5 billion years
old or anywhere close, so drop the pretense.

In any case, it was you who started talking of current climate
as meaning anything -- your comment about entering a mini ice age.
From the perspective of billions of years (which, actually, you
don't hold anyhow) your entire life span is trivially short -- you
are but a fart, in your example. Everything that happens on and to
the earth during that time is equally trivial -- to you.

It happens that I think that humans are important, unlike you,
so time spans of a few years are also important. 80 years of
outright ice age, or baking, are nothing to the planet, but quite
important to people.

As we look on a human time scale, climate is changing and has
changed significantly.

--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences