Paul Hyett wrote:

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Martin Rowley
m wrote :

Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

IMO, chaos theory makes any weather prediction much more than a week
ahead, not worth the paper it's written on.

Admittedly, for long-range forecasting based on extending the current
forecast further into the distant future then you're right to worry about
chaos theory. But older methods, such as using sea-temperature anomalies,
are much less likely to be troubled by it.

A recent example of how sea temperatures affect the atmospheric circulation
occurred last year when El Nino kicked in and moved Atlantic hurricanes
away from the US giving them a light year. This year, with La Nina in
place - albeit looking a tad weak - I'd expect to see the hurricanes
following the more usual tracks into the Caribbean and SE USA.


--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
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