Paul Bartlett wrote:

I unfortunately need to go a little further on this.
When the Global Warming theory was hatched in the very late 1980's few
English politicians were seriously interested. Then further research by
meteorologists/climatologists was so overwhelming that they had to see
what could be done.

The theory was hatched in the 90s - the 1890s. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_...for_ic e_ages.
Little work then seems to have been done until the 1960s. In 1967, Manabe
and Wetherald calculated a doubling of CO2 would raise global temperatures
by a couple of degrees C - rather less than Arrhenius had calculated.

The theory wasn't created to explain global warming but actually forecast it
would happen.

The same attitude spread globally with the exception of USA, Australia,
Canada, China and India. Poor old Africa was left with more pressing
problems.
Now should Europe get a severe winter, as occurred in the mid-war years,
possible due to a strong La Nina - where will everybody stand?
My initial posting may have seemed very banal. In fact is was not.
My apologies for going on about this subject, maybe everyone has just
accepted global warming as a fact. I cannot possibly disagree - but one
cold winter may have huge European political consequences.
Are we too sanguine?

Curiously, the severe European winters of the 40s corresponded with the
previous peak in global temperatures. Temperatures are now 0.6C above that
peak.

La Nina is in place and a cold pool in the Atlantic (albeit showing signs of
weakening) would suggest a little hope for a more easterly winter than
usual.


--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
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